Volatility Woes

It was the best of the times, and it was the worst of the time! Volatility in the current choppy markets signifies both worst and best of times. With all the proponents of MPT (Modern portfolio theory with the Betas and Alphas) who really abhor the term citing it as "Risk" will advocate us to stay away from the markets. However, like all value investors, believe volatility helps people who help themselves. Long term investors who have done their homework well will find some discounts, albeit not with higher margin of safety, but high enough to start building their starter positions.

There are very few stocks which are available at good discounts. One of this is Balmer Lawrie &Co. which has one of the best balance sheets among the Indian corporates, offering a 4% dividend yield, and has EBITDA of Rs.110 cr at Mcap of Rs. 900 cr without any debt and cash of Rs. 250 cr. You will find this kind of value buys in market turmoil, but getting these at the current market levels will help to build a strong portfolio of companies.

Disclaimer: Guinea Pigs should try to do their own analysis to make an informed decision. I have a postion in this stock

Inflation woes

Since I am inspired by all contrarian thinkers, I wanted to check out if there is any contrary thing moving inside my head (well only then I can be called as contrarian investor :).

Well, most of us believe that inflation is which makes your rock investment look like a pinch of salt. Yes of course, we have to look at the real returns. 2 months before I purchased a flat TV from LG for Rs.6000/-. 10 years before, the same TV with all the funny technologies like Fuzzy logic, QFT (qudra point focus) etc made strong waves in Indian electronic sector. The cost was somewhere around Rs. 21,000. So its not inflation but deflation in this market. But over the years new technologies are invented. At present we have HDTV /flat paneled TV in which cost atleast Rs. 30,000/-.

What I mean to say, its not inflation which are causing problems but our increased desire for luxury and comfort. What's in the TV. It is the same idiot box which was 10 years ago, and it is going to show same stupid sops. Will Tulsi / Parvati cry more on HDTV's? No...But yes then we want to see tears more clearly.

Appraisals

Appraisal season round the corner

To say I am not money oriented-I am fooling myself....With appraisals around I do expect some decent hike in the salary. But appraisal blues are always there. All the HR stuff has to be filled out

a. Rating my competencies (Well I have to find these myself except I will surely rate 5/5 on Laziness competency)

b. Filling up my Goal statements - I have many goals in life but unable to focus on few of them. Still confused as I still have to find the right goal...Oh right...they want it for office goals...I forgot that..after all the company is obligated to fulfill my goals

c. THE MOST IMPORTANT ONE-Self Appraisal Forms-I wanted to rate E (Exceeds expectations) and my PM's N (not qualified). But then after bartering-we settle for Y (Yippee-status Quo maintained)

Let see in my salary slip next month, whether all these alphabets helped me in my salary hike :)

Great blogs and sites to follow for investing

valueinvestorindia.blogspot.com
www.fwallstreet.com
www.lmcm.com/differentiated_thinking/tlf_archive.aspx
www.capitalideasonline.com



will create a comprehensive list some time later....

3 idiots

Yesterday I went to one of the biggest blockbuster movie of the decade-The 3 idiots. it was definitely a well made movie with Aamir Khan despite being 44 looked a collegian.

what I liked
-Boman Irani's acting
-Great scenic shots
-Aamir Khan's attitude
-some dialogues

what pissed me off
-more than 80% of the movie was from the book. I totally agree with Chetan Bhagat (http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report_160-of-170-pages-of-3-idiots-script-were-mine-abhijat-joshi_1331436).

I didn't expect such response from good film-makers of the Munnabhai fame to get embroiled in such stupid controversy. If it was for a cheap publicity, then both film-makers Vinod Chopra and the author Chetan Bhagat should be blamed. And if we believe Chetan bhagat, which I feel is true after watching the movie, then he surely deserves credit due as well as good royalty payment. Film is the top grosser on the bourses.

-Madhvan no way looked like he was doing engineering. "All is well" song showed his plumpness. If he wanted to be shown as engineer, then directors should have shown him that he has repeated each engg. year

-Crowd in the theater-went for really cheap tickets (Rs. 40 wonly!!! as we sat in the stalls-for Y-generation-please run through the dictionary for what it means), and got high pitched whistling for free

But still all is well :)

Advertising Investments

I am currently going across various websites to collect the PE/VC investment deals, When analyzing these deals it is quite surprising to see that IT boom is not over as yet. It is still in disguise of Advertising boom. May be I am reacting too much and have no doubt that Google is excellent innovation based company but it is primarily a Advertising company.

So when the deals were analyzed, one might say that all these social networking websites are getting another round of funding. I was just wondering is there a real need to invest this hard earned capital in "Social Networking" / dating websites which earns majority of revenues from Advertisements?

So I am just trying to understand the difference between 2 social networking dating websites including their competitive advantages except the ad-spaces, inventories and other so-called efficiencies. There has to be some limit in senseless investments. This shows people have now become too greedy to explore various avenues and going in for some short term quick gains.

There are several social economic businesses lying around where there is still paucity of funds. I am not saying to invest in businesses with bad economics but essentially investments are required in healthcare and other tangible businesses which add significant value to the society.

interdepartmental transfer 2

I really thought that I can do great stuff in another department, but I really don't know why I backed out. Was it because I got more accustomed to the current job? Was I afraid of doing something new? Didn't like the processes that I had to do for the early days, despite the assurance from the new boss that this will be taken care of within next few days. But what I really feel that I am at peace now. Does this determine that I am being diffident? To me yes!

Of course taking a decision is quite the pain, but anyways we all have to decide, and whatever the decisions would be we all have to bear the consequence of either good or bad.